Predictions   Intro:   I keep running into situations where I feel like I made a prediction years ago about society, that is finally coming true - but it's sometimes hard for me to tell how closely I really predicted it, vs how much of it was altering my historical memory of my prediction. So, this page is for me to write down predictions that I can check against at some later point.   Predictions:   June 27, 2009 - Consumerism - American education system teaches us that a society needs to continually consume to be successful. I call BS on this. I suspect that a society that is based off of minimalism would function just as well, or even better in the long run because there would be less issues with depleted resources and the conflicts that come with it. As for an actual prediction - I'm not sure I have one - it would probably be hundreds of years out before anything would change on this front.   June 27, 2009 - National Debt - People say that a country that runs a debt all the time is not an issue. I have essentially nothing to back up my prediction on this, but I call BS on this, and think that within 30 years it will be seen as a very problematic economic stance to be in debt. I feel like the pendulum is already starting to swing a bit with this one. It just seems like people are over complicating the analysis - when taken at a very simplistic level - debt means you are paying interest, which means wasted money. Bad.   June 27, 2009 - Toilet Paper - This one is a bit gross, so feel free to skip :) Anyhow, my prediction is that within my lifetime, people will view using current toilet paper after defecating as being archaic and repulsive. More likely most civilized nations will use wet toilet paper, or more likely toilet paper that has disinfectants and such built in. As a gross but I think enlightening example, take the following situation: Let's say that your dog accidentally took a shit on your leg. Gross, right? Would you take a dry paper towel and wipe it off and call it a day? Or would you go get soap and water and scrub your leg like their was no tomorrow? Hopefully you see where I'm going with this. The situations don't seem very different to me.   July 28, 2009 - Woolly Mammoth - I predict that by 2050, an animal that is at least 50% woolly mammoth will be born. I suspect that it will even be sooner than that - by 2025 or so, but 2050 is my fall back number (call it a couple of standard deviations away from 2025).   February 26, 2010 - Hot Water - Perhaps this is more of an invention than a prediction - but I foresee homes heating water at the terminals, instead of storing it. That is to say, instead of having a large tank that holds 50 gallons of hot water (which costs energy to keep hot, and can run out), homes will instead heat the water at the end of the pipes: specifically at the faucets, at the shower heads, etc. This will mean unlimited hot water, and if done right, lower electric costs. I suspect it will be invented and feasible (size, cost, etc) in 15 years (2025), and it will be the norm in new homes 5 years after that.Update: Turns out I am pretty off base with this one. Sounds like this is already in the works here in the US, and a more archaic form of it has been around for many many years in less developed countries. Thanks Katie and Tom for enlightening. Send Comments